According to the source, Polymarket market pricing indicates a 52 percent probability that BTC trades below 100,000 dollars before month-end, source: Polymarket. A probability above 50 percent signals a mild downside skew and suggests hedging demand near the 100,000 level in the near term, source: Polymarket. Traders can monitor changes in this implied probability to time entries and manage short-term risk in BTC spot and options, source: Polymarket.

According to @GreeksLive, more than $1.15 billion, or about 28% of total BTC options volume in the past 24 hours, flowed into shallow out-of-the-money puts expiring this week and this month, with strikes concentrated in the 10,400–10,800 range (@GreeksLive). According to @GreeksLive, options skew has turned more negative, especially in the short term, with the magnitude of the shift comparable to readings observed on the 11th (@GreeksLive). According to @GreeksLive, this positioning indicates that large liquidity providers and market makers are pricing in substantial downside risk, with sentiment nearing levels seen after the broader market drop on the 11th (@GreeksLive). According to @GreeksLive, aligning with large-player positioning, buying put options as a hedge currently appears the more prudent strategy (@GreeksLive).

According to @AltcoinGordon, a new bottom signal has appeared while analyst Capo is warning for lower, indicating elevated short-term downside risk for crypto traders. Source: X post by @AltcoinGordon on Oct 14, 2025: https://twitter.com/AltcoinGordon/status/1978041899010146479 The post does not specify assets or price levels, but the message is explicitly cautionary for participants attempting to time a market bottom. Source: X post by @AltcoinGordon on Oct 14, 2025: https://twitter.com/AltcoinGordon/status/1978041899010146479

According to @AltcoinGordon, $ASTER failed to hold above 1.247383, which he reads as a clear sign of weakness and an alert for potential downside risk for traders source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025.

According to @GreeksLive, the community shows a notably bearish market sentiment, with traders warning against buying at current levels and expecting further downside, source: @GreeksLive on X, Sep 3, 2025. According to @GreeksLive, participants are specifically watching the 105 and 95 levels as key thresholds to gauge continuation or support in the near term, source: @GreeksLive on X, Sep 3, 2025.

According to @EauDoon, the ETH liquidation map was adjusted five times within five minutes, an unusual bout of positioning shuffling that he notes usually precedes further downside in ETH, source: @EauDoon (X, Aug 25, 2025). According to @EauDoon, this rapid liquidation map reshuffling implies elevated liquidation risk and near-term volatility, warranting caution for leveraged ETH positions, source: @EauDoon (X, Aug 25, 2025). According to @EauDoon, no specific price levels or targets were provided, but the alert focuses on short-term risk management as liquidation clusters may shift quickly, source: @EauDoon (X, Aug 25, 2025).

According to @CryptoCred on Twitter, most people fail to achieve significant wealth from altcoins and crypto trading because they are unwilling to accept the downside risk inherent in these volatile markets (source: @CryptoCred, Twitter). This insight is crucial for traders, highlighting the importance of risk management and realistic expectations. Understanding downside volatility can help traders develop strategies to navigate price swings, especially in trending altcoin markets and high-growth periods. This viewpoint underscores the need for robust risk controls when trading assets like BTC and ETH.

According to Greeks.live, the Community Daily Digest published on June 9, 2025, highlights a mixed but overall bearish sentiment among traders, focusing on the critical 106 resistance level for BTC during weekend trading. The report emphasizes heightened concern over significant downside risk, which could influence short-term trading strategies and increase volatility for crypto assets tied to Bitcoin’s price movements. Traders are recommended to monitor BTC’s price action closely around this resistance level, as a failure to break through may trigger further declines in the broader cryptocurrency market (Source: Greeks.live, June 9, 2025).

According to @doctortraderr, the current ETH liquidation heat map indicates a downside bias, with significant attention on the first major downside liquidity pool at $1680. This level has emerged as a potential short-term price target for traders, suggesting that sell-side pressure could intensify as price approaches this zone (source: Twitter/@doctortraderr, April 27, 2025). Monitoring liquidation clusters and order book data remains critical for ETH short-term trading strategies.

According to @GreeksLive, the IBIT options market indicates a strong directional exposure towards BTC's upside with longer maturities. However, it simultaneously prices the downside more aggressively, reflecting a cautious bullish sentiment among traditional financial markets similar to the crypto sphere. This suggests that while there is optimism for Bitcoin's price increase, investors are also wary of potential downtrends.

According to Crypto Rover, the most critical Bitcoin support levels currently are at $25,000 and $28,500. These levels are essential for traders to monitor as they represent significant buying interest areas. If Bitcoin holds above these support levels, it could indicate a bullish trend continuation. Conversely, a break below could suggest further downside risk. This analysis is crucial for traders planning their entry and exit strategies.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prolonged economic uncertainty historically poses significant downside risks, with five quarters typically resulting in a 1.5% GDP contraction. The current trade war has already entered its first quarter, indicating potential continued economic pressure if uncertainty persists. This situation could be a critical factor for traders to monitor closely.

According to @glassnode, the SOPR and Realized Loss Z-Scores for BTC have not reached exhaustion levels, suggesting that a market bottom is not yet confirmed. Traders should be aware of potential downside risk until these indicators align, signaling a possible bottoming process.

According to glassnode, during past post-all-time-high corrections, specifically in May 2021, November 2021, April 2024, and February 2024, Bitcoin's price has historically moved towards -1 standard deviation below the Short-Term Holder cost basis. This metric is currently near $71K-$72K, suggesting a potential downside risk if past trends continue.

According to André Dragosch, PhD, Bitcoin and crypto markets are currently pricing in a significant amount of negative news, suggesting limited downside potential for these assets. In contrast, traditional financial (tradfi) markets appear to be complacent, with elevated downside risks across various asset classes. This indicates a divergence in market sentiment and risk assessment between the crypto and traditional financial markets.